Since 2022 the Clean Energy Transition Institute (CETI) has partnered with the University of Washington Program on Climate Change’s (PCC) Actionable Community-Oriented Research eNgagement (ACORN) program to produce data visualization for the Northwest Clean Energy Atlas.
This collaboration offers UW graduate students the opportunity to dig into the state and federal data that regional decision makers rely on for planning how the clean energy transition might mitigate climate change impacts.
As an ACORN fellow, I researched Northwest energy and emissions data over the course of my final year as a master’s student in the UW School of Marine and Environmental Affairs. My research tackled updating data visualizations that show greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions data from the Environmental Protection Agency and electricity capacity and generation data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency.
I used Java and Python coding languages to clean the raw data and updated the data visualizations with the most current information, through 2021 or 2022, depending on data availability. I also had the opportunity to build new visualizations and dashboards to allow users to navigate the energy information more easily.
As I worked on these resources, I thought about connections to my master’s thesis on new development of offshore wind energy along the U.S. Pacific Coast. Below, I explore recent developments in electricity generation, federal wind energy auctions, and what is required to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. I invite you to explore the interactive data visualizations on the Atlas to uncover other interesting trends for yourself.
In 2021, total carbon emissions in the Northwest rebounded to 2016 levels (~152 million metric tons (MMT)) across the region, after falling to 2012 levels–the end of the global financial crisis–during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 (~143 MMT).
Interestingly, the rebound in energy emissions differed across the Northwest from 2020-2021 (Figure 1). Washington and Oregon electricity generation saw a decrease in carbon emissions of 10% and 7.5% respectively, between 2020 and 2021, while Montana and Idaho saw increases of 23% and 22% in electricity generation carbon emissions respectively.
Another updated visualization shows Oregon’s progress toward its clean electricity targets. Oregon House Bill 2021: 100 Percent Clean Electricity mandates that the state eliminate all GHG emissions from the electricity sector by 2040, with a 90% reduction of baseline level emissions by 2035. This bill has become one of the driving forces behind the development of clean energy in the state.
Despite notable increases in Oregon’s solar and onshore wind capacity since 2000 (Figure 2), the state is projected to need even more clean energy generation in the coming years to achieve its emissions reduction targets—approximately 25 GW (25,000 MW) of new wind and solar capacity by 2050, according to CETI’s Net-Zero Northwest-Energy Pathways study.
As Oregon explores how to increase its clean energy generation capacity, floating offshore wind (FOSW) could prove a valuable renewable resource for the state. In 2021, HB 3375 required the Oregon Department of Energy to produce a report identifying the benefits and challenges of developing up to 3 GW (3,000 MW) of FOSW by 2030. The FOSW report is not binding but it does set a baseline for the state’s energy planners and utilities to consider. The Oregon Clean Energy Pathways study that CETI and Evolved Energy Research performed in 2021 also demonstrated the role that offshore wind could play in Oregon’s clean energy resource mix.
Due to the West Coast’s unique bathymetry—where the depth plummets rapidly—floating, as opposed to fixed, offshore wind is required to capture wind energy where the resource is strongest. Siting FOSW further from the coastline could reduce conflict with the fishing industry, mitigate impacts on tourism and view shed, and alleviate other community concerns, while steady winds lead to increased energy generation.
Any FOSW infrastructure developed further than three miles offshore would be in federal waters, and all projects currently being considered or planned are 18 miles or more away from the coast. The Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act defines federal jurisdiction of these coastal areas and makes the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) the primary governing body for these developments.
On April 30, 2024, the Pacific Wind 2 Auction (PACW-2) Proposed Sale Notice released by BOEM targeted two sites off the southern Oregon coast: the Coos Bay Wind Energy Area and the Brookings Wind Energy Area. These locations have the potential to generate a combined 3.1 GW (3,100 MW) of electricity and power over 1.1 million homes development.
Oregon used 57.5 million MWh of electricity in 2021, 14.07 million MWh of which was produced by natural gas and 12.55 million MWh of which was coal-generated, even though Oregon’s last coal plant shut down in 2020 (the emissions from coal power are from out of state).
Hypothetically, the PACW-2 FOSW farms off the Oregon coast could offset nearly all the state’s remaining natural gas electricity GHG emissions. At a 40% capacity factor (energy produced/nameplate capacity, and the low end of estimate range), these two initial FOSW developments would deliver approximately 10.9 million MWh or ~19% of the total electricity consumed in Oregon in 2021 (Figure 3).
The 3.1 GW of FOSW capacity could therefore eliminate the need for 77% of the current natural gas generated electricity in the state. The size (15 MW+ per offshore wind turbine versus 5 MW onshore) and consistency of offshore wind represents a tremendous opportunity to decarbonize Oregon. However, West Coast offshore wind cannot begin installations until the initial West Coast port in Humboldt Bay, California is completed in 2028-2029.
Washington has started the Blue Wind Supply Chain Collaborative to help build the components for this new energy sector. While Washington’s offshore wind profile is not as robust as Oregon’s and California’s, it does have a skilled labor force and manufacturing base that could support offshore wind development for its neighbors to the south.
Though the pathways to a net-zero carbon future are challenging, we know where to focus: energy efficiency, clean electricity, electrification, clean fuels, and carbon capture. To meet the region's goals, states will have to partner with each other, local communities, Tribal governments, and developers to create an equitable pathway forward.
The benefits of a clean energy economy are immense and include new jobs, potentially more stable energy prices, lower pollution exposure, and doing our fair share in the global fight against climate change. Recent research on the social cost of carbon, which includes direct health benefits and climate mitigation effects of wind and solar energy, found that the U.S. saw $250 billion in savings from 2019-2022. This comes out to approximately $100 of benefits for every megawatt hour of clean energy produced.
Exploring the Northwest Clean Energy Atlas data with CETI gave me a better understanding of the impacts our energy infrastructure has on the Northwest. By leveraging data visualizations and tools like these, we can make clearer decisions about our path forward and create a more just and equitable energy transition for all.
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