Today, the Clean Energy Transition Institute (CETI) released the Net-Zero Northwest (NZNW) Workforce analysis, the Northwest’s first comprehensive clean energy workforce analysis that examines jobs in the buildings, fuels, electricity, and transportation sectors that would be created or displaced if the Northwest were to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
BW Research Partnership performed this analysis based on Evolved Energy Research’s modeling for CETI’s NZNW Energy Pathways analysis.
The study finds that while fossil fuel-related jobs decline on a path to net-zero, net energy jobs in the Northwest grow by 17% between 2021 and 2030. The job numbers in the following sections include direct, indirect, and induced employment (Figure 1).
Using clean electricity to decarbonize as many sectors as possible is key to a low-carbon future. This study finds that the Northwest Electricity sector supports a 43% job growth (nearly 44,400 net jobs) between 2021 and 2030, driven by increases in land-based wind, transmission, distribution, and solar.
As renewables take over as sources of electricity generation, natural gas, coal, oil, and other fossil fuel generation industries experience net decreases in employment. There may be transition opportunities for natural gas generation workers if facilities switch from natural gas to biomass methane gas (as assumed in the NZNW Energy Pathways modeling). This may require retraining workers on new processes and day-to-day operating, but there would likely be many transferable skills.
The Northwest has a relatively clean grid compared to other parts of the United States, thus the region must focus on decreasing transport and industrial emissions, which requires developing clean fuels as a means to achieve net-zero emissions in the region by 2050.
Despite job displacement in fossil fuel subsectors, the Northwest Fuels sector as a whole supports a net increase of nearly 7,400 jobs between 2021 and 2030 (a 19% net increase). Hydrogen drives this growth, adding more than 11,000 jobs, while biofuels add more than 1,400.
Developing clean fuels offers opportunities to use existing skilled labor in fossil fuel industries. But to mitigate negative impacts to displaced workers in natural gas, natural gas distribution, and other fossil fuel jobs, resources will be needed to train workers to produce, distribute, and store hydrogen and biofuels.
Furthermore, jobs in these emerging sectors may not exist in the same locations as natural gas and fossil fuel jobs. Early and intentional planning and collaboration between policymakers, union organizations, industries, and other stakeholders will be critical to support workers in this transition.
Between 2021 and 2030, the Buildings sector supports a 22% increase in employment (over 32,500 jobs), driven largely by commercial heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) and residential shell jobs. In fact, all buildings subsectors are projected to grow as energy efficiency and building electrification and decarbonization efforts ramp up.
Since all buildings subsectors experience net job growth, there is less of a concern about transitioning displaced workers. However, there is still a significant need for updating apprenticeship programs, continuing education programs, and other curricula to ensure that workers can continuously learn about installation and maintenance for newer, lower-carbon versions of HVAC technology and appliances.
Employment supported by the Transportation sector increases by almost 1% (approximately 2,000 net jobs) between 2021 and 2030, reflecting decreases in employment in conventional fueling stations and, to a lesser extent, vehicle manufacturing, along with net growth in vehicle maintenance, wholesale trade parts, and charging stations.
There are also concerns from autoworkers about the impact of the electric vehicle transition on high-quality union jobs in the automotive sector. It is therefore incumbent upon regional stakeholders, including economic development agencies, unions, community colleges, and workforce development experts, to seek ways to address these challenges.
A wage-tier analysis performed as part of the NZNW Workforce analysis found that half of all clean energy jobs in 2030 are in the lowest wage tier, pointing to the importance of intentional planning for job quality in this transition.
There are various strategies—including labor union pathways, prevailing wage requirements, registered apprenticeships, and project labor agreements—that could promote good-paying, fair jobs in emerging clean energy sectors and bring economic development to a wide range of communities that have historically been left out economically. Along these same lines, investment in ongoing training and re-training programs for transitioning workers across all sectors is critically important.
The NZNW Workforce analysis offers regional policymakers direction for how employment will shift over time if the region were to attain a net-zero emissions goal by 2050. The question for the region’s stakeholders is how to manage the transition to clean energy so that as many people as possible benefit, either by having access to jobs that were previously foreclosed or by receiving training that would enable them to learn new skills and maintain a good standard of living.
For a deeper dive into this ground breaking study, you can check out the Workforce Analysis Key Findings, explore the sector findings on the NZNW website, or join CETI’s webinar on December 12 at 10am (PT) where we will walk through the NZNW Workforce analysis in more detail.
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