SCALE 2030

To meet 2050 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions limits Washington state must scale equitable building decarbonization at pace by 2030. This level of market transformation will require systemic change and large-scale mobilization not in place with current policies, programs, or incentives. The Clean Energy Transition Institute (CETI) and 2050 Institute have been working on this challenge since 2021.

In 2023, CETI will continue our partnership with 2050 Institute to build upon our Operation 2030 project by launching SCALE 2030, which aims to drive systemic change to mobilize large-scale, equitable building decarbonization in Washington state by 2030, thereby ensuring the market will be able to reduce building emissions to zero by 2050.

SCALE 2030 is guided by five key organizing principles:

    (1)   Simplicity
    (2)   Cost Reductions
    (3)   Alignment
    (4)   Leverage
    (5)   Equity

SCALE 2030 aims to create a new framework to optimize building decarbonization at scale with the least amount of market friction, at the lowest possible cost, within a policy and market ecosystem that is functional for key building sector actors—owners, developers, real estate managers, financiers—so they can collectively transform the building stock by 2050.  

This new framework depends on a highly functional market. Mandates, programs, and market transformation efforts must be comprehensive, coherent, and harmonized with clear, actionable paths to achieve required emission targets. Performance outcomes must be integrated at every level of the ecosystem.

SCALE 2030 involves five initiatives:

1. Design a performance-based Building Decarbonization Ecosystem capable of decarbonizing buildings at scale by 2030 and meeting Washington’s statutory 2050 emissions limits.
2. Assemble a Building Decarbonization Roadmap with recommendations and a timeline for policies; simplified program designs; strategic investments; and market development required to develop a high performing building decarbonization ecosystem.
3. Align Power Planning with Decarbonization Policy to ensure that the 2026 Northwest Power Plan includes appropriate levels of efficiency and distributed energy resources to meet load growth associated with near 100% electrification of building end uses.  
4. Develop a Blueprint for Deep Cost Reductions to identify the most strategic, lowest cost solution sets, deployment strategies, and building infrastructure investments to deliver a 25-50% reduction in building decarbonization costs and reduce burden on low- and moderate-income households.
5. Develop a Framework for Systemic Funding and Incentives to recommend the highest priority suite of performance-driven funding approaches and incentives to address the funding gap.