The Net-Zero Northwest (NZNW) Energy Pathways-Transportation analysis found replacing gas-powered vehicles with electric-powered engines is significantly more cost effective than other strategies to reduce emissions in the transportation sector, the Northwest’s number one source of greenhouse gas emissions.
Large-scale transportation electrification would cause a huge transformation in Transportation sector jobs on the road (pun intended) to a net-zero future, particularly for gas stations, as zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs) would replace gas-powered internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. ZEVs include electric vehicles (EVs), and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs).
CETI’s recently released NZNW Workforce analysis offers insights into Northwest energy employment as the region aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with a focus on the next seven years through 2030. The Transportation sector was one of the four energy sectors examined in the workforce analysis and includes Conventional Fueling Stations and Charging Stations among other subsectors.
This blog post dives into what our study tells us about how this transition might affect existing Conventional Fueling Station workers and emerging Charging Station workers, as well as speculation about how fueling stations might evolve.
In 2021, the Northwest Transportation sector supported roughly 219,600 jobs—more than any other energy sector—across direct, indirect, and induced employment.
In particular, Conventional Fueling Stations supported more jobs than any other subsector in this analysis (almost 72,000, or 33% of Transportation sector jobs), including cashiers, retail managers, and service station attendants.
Charging Stations, on the other hand, supported only 77 jobs in the Northwest in 2021 due to the relative nascency of the EV charging industry. This subsector includes jobs such as electricians, urban and regional planners, operations managers, and others supporting the manufacturing, installation, and maintenance of charging stations.
Our analysis finds that by 2030, employment supported by Conventional Fueling Stations declines by 15% due to the drop in demand for gas-powered ICE vehicles as EVs and other ZEV stocks outpace ICE vehicle stocks. At the same time, employment supported by charging stations rises by over 2,000% (due to the low baseline employment, this accounts for an additional 1,700 jobs). See Figure 1 below.
Baseline employment for the NZNW Workforce analysis comes from the U.S. Energy and Employment Jobs Report (USEER) and relevant complementary labor market data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
However, charging stations are not included in the USEER, so the baseline employment for this subsector was calculated using charging infrastructure investments and IMPLAN (the input-output model used for this analysis). Additional assumptions for Charging Station employment change come from the following sources:
For Conventional Fueling Stations, the modeling team assumes that if a fueling station does not have a convenience store, 100% of its employment would be subject to the change in fuel demand (again, as projected in the NZNW Energy Pathways analysis). If it does have a convenience store, 61% of the employment is assumed to be impacted by the change in fuel demand (according to the National Association of Convenience Stores, 61% of revenues are related to fuel sales).
As the EV transition has gotten underway in the United States (2023 set a record with over one million EV sales), people around the country are wondering—and worrying—about the future of gas stations. While technical and economic modeling needs to rely on assumptions such as those explained above, reality may paint a different picture for Conventional Fueling Station and Charging Station workers.
Many of today’s gas stations might evolve into EV charging stations, but there will not be a one-to-one replacement, for a variety of reasons. First, in contrast to gas stations, EV charging will be available at home and work, so customers using charging stations will be those who do not have access at home or work, or people on long trips.
Second, there is the question of the time it takes to charge: While EVs differ in terms of range and charging times, direct current fast charging equipment (the fastest option, also referred to as Level 3 charging) can still take up to an hour to charge an EV and its battery.
A driver’s experience is therefore much different than a five-minute pit stop to fill up on gas. This also means that we could see retailers coming in to take advantage of a driver’s free time while waiting to charge, or see hubs emerging that offer diverse services in addition to traditional fuel sales.
Third, it will not always make sense economically for current gas station owners to transition to EV charging stations because the cost of installing an EV charger may outweigh the benefits, leading some business owners to sell their gas stations rather than convert them.
Finally, there are conflicts emerging between gas stations and electric utilities as they figure out who will control a future network of charging stations. While the price of gasoline depends on a global supply chain, EV charging costs (and profits) will be determined by local electricity market dynamics.
The way these dynamics shake out will impact both existing Conventional Fuel Station workers and future Charging Station workers.
The transportation sector presents important opportunities for the region to meet its decarbonization goals by fostering a zero-emissions vehicle transition, but the sector’s decarbonization strategy must consider the uncertainty surrounding Conventional Fueling Station workers.
It is therefore incumbent upon regional stakeholders, including economic development agencies, unions, community colleges, and workforce development experts, to seek ways to address these challenges and develop a transition plan for workers that may be displaced by transportation electrification.
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