Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 in the Northwest will not be possible at the scale and pace that the climate crisis requires without significantly investing in equitably growing a clean energy workforce. Understanding how demand for energy employment might shift can guide strategies and investments to ensure an equitable and just clean energy transition by helping workers upskill and obtain quality, family-sustaining clean energy jobs, as well as ensuring workers currently in jobs that will be displaced have the opportunity to retool.
CETI’s recently released Net-Zero Northwest Workforce State Analysis aims to add to this understanding by offering insights into how energy employment in the four Northwest states might change if the region were to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with a focus on the next six years through 2030.
The study found that despite displaced fossil-fuel related jobs, net energy employment in Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington is projected to grow by nearly 63,000 jobs (17%) from 2021 to 2030 if the region were on the path to net-zero by 2050.
But an equitable clean energy transition will not happen on its own: how can we ensure that this transition not only brings that job growth, but that these are quality jobs that pay sustaining wages with benefits (including healthcare), and the opportunity for advancement in a safe work environment?
Examining employment by wage tier helps shine a light on job quality in this analysis. BW Research, the firm that modeled the jobs, developed wage tiers based on the MIT Living Wage Calculator of median living wages for different living circumstances across the four Northwest states.
The figure below helps illustrate why efforts to address job quality remain important in all energy sectors included in this analysis. While the number of jobs in each sector increases between 2021 and 2030, the distribution of jobs within each of these three wage tiers does not change significantly. In 2030, between 40% and 53% of energy jobs across all sectors in each state fall in the lowest wage tier, which is below a living wage.
Note: Use dropdown menu on the right to select view by region, and hover over bar graphs to see additional details.
In some states and sectors, location, timing, and scale will likely be complicating factors to a smooth workforce transition. New clean energy jobs will not necessarily be located in the same areas as displaced fossil fuel dependent jobs, and relevant registered apprenticeship and training programs may not be available in all regions of the states, which means that job seekers would have to leave their communities for training. Existing training programs may also not be able to meet the demand for workers at the scale and pace that the transition would require.
Another concern related to job quality is the considerable growth in construction jobs.The immense increase in new renewable electricity, clean fuels capacity, and related activities requires a lot of building, and the construction industry grows more than any other industry analyzed in this study (manufacturing, professional services, and other supply chain). The short-term nature of these construction jobs, which fluctuate with boom-and-bust cycles of development, raises legitimate concerns about the stability of employment in this industry.
A mitigating factor to this issue is that while each individual construction project may provide short-term work, the significant investment that the NZNW Energy Pathways analysis found in renewable energy and low-carbon building technology leads to a continued demand for construction jobs in Northwest energy sectors through 2050. Labor unions and private apprenticeship programs may also be able to support stable workforce development for construction workers.
These realities make early planning and investment in an equitable clean energy workforce transition even more critical, and areas for future research could include a comprehensive workforce needs assessment to provide further detail on clean energy workforce needs to guide targeted workforce development strategies.
There are various strategies that could promote good-paying jobs in emerging clean energy sectors and bring economic development to a wide range of communities that have historically been left out of opportunities to share in economic prosperity.
Through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the federal government has taken significant steps to try to ensure that clean energy investment creates quality, good-paying jobs. One such mechanism is a bonus tax credit that links prevailing wage (a minimum wage rate typically the average or market wage for a type of work in a specific area) and registered apprenticeship requirements to the level of clean energy tax incentive available.
Early Signs of IRA Impact
While it is still early to evaluate effects of the IRA provisions on clean energy job growth and job quality, stories are emerging around the country about people of diverse backgrounds entering the energy workforce as electricians, automotive system technicians, and more, thanks to expanded opportunities from the IRA.
Prevailing Wages
Prevailing wages have historically been established for public works or federal construction projects. While prevailing wage requirements can be met without unions demanding them, historically unions have been effective at ensuring workers are paid the prevailing wage. With prevailing wages now tied to certain federal IRA incentives, there may be more market demand for union involvement.
In addition to benefits for workers, UC Berkeley Labor Center research finds that prevailing wages accelerated solar production in California, pushing back on the argument that prevailing wage requirements hinder clean energy development by making it too expensive.
Registered Apprenticeships
Registered apprenticeships (paid positions with on-the-job training and additional instruction) are another key strategy that can be sponsored by unions, employers, or collaboration between the two. Registered apprenticeships have proven to bring higher earnings to participating workers, help employers reduce the cost of hiring, and improve company culture and employee loyalty.
Project Labor Agreements (PLAs, agreements negotiated in advance of a project to specify wages, benefits, working conditions, and more) can be another helpful tool to ensure job quality. President Biden signed an Executive Order in February 2022 clarifying that “it is the policy of the Federal Government for agencies to use project labor agreements in connection with large-scale construction projects to promote economy and efficiency in Federal procurement.”
Recent proposed rulemaking from the U.S. Department of Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service also includes several provisions connected to PLAs and their role in encouraging compliance with the tax incentives for registered apprenticeships and prevailing wage.
Community Benefit Plans
Lastly, Community Benefits Plans (CBPs) often go beyond the scope of PLAs and can also be beneficial tools to maximize benefits for local communities. The DOE requires Community Benefits Plans as part of all Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and IRA funding opportunity announcements and loan applications. Ensuring this work gets done quickly but also correctly—with proper engagement with local communities—is likely one of the biggest challenges to emerge with this transition.
The NZNW Workforce State Analysis offers regional stakeholders—energy workers, workforce developers, policymakers, clean energy businesses—insight into how employment in the four Northwest states might shift over time if the region were on the path to net-zero emissions by 2050 to inform future investment and workforce development strategies.
For a deeper dive into this study, please see the key findings, complete results, technical reports, and data for each state on the NZNW Workforce State Analysis webpage. You can also explore interactive figures that present sector findings on the regional and state levels on the NZNW website.
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